The Bottom Billion: Why the poorest countries are failing and what can be done about it? By Paul Collier. Oxford University Press, 2007
The main thesis of the book is that globalization has been beneficial to a majority of the people in the developed and developing world, except for a large group of small countries in Africa, Caribbean ad Pacific countries, which comprise of a billion people (out of the total world population of about 6.5 billion). These billion people are being increasingly marginalized by globalization. For example, average per capita GDP growth of the economies of the bottom billion was 0.5% in 1970s, 0.4% in 1980s and negative 0.50% in 1990s. In comparison, per capita GDP growth in other developing countries increased from 2.5% in 1970s to 4% each in 1980s and 1990s. So there is big time divergence in income between the bottom billion and rest of the world population.
The main policy diagnostics and prescriptions are that, first, Africa has failed to develop jobs in export manufactures, such as garments and textiles, because except for USA, European countries impose tariffs on imports of garments from Africa. In addition, silly restrictions and regulations, such as labels are not in French language, etc are also in place. In contrast, East and South Asian countries, such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, have generated jobs in garments industry. Therefore, the G-8 policy should adopt common set of rules to encourage African exports rather than make aid commitments in an age when aid is actually declining for decades. Second, the bottom billion societies are in the midst of revenue boom because of high oil and mineral prices. Such revenue increases are higher than any conceivable aid disbursements but there is a danger that these revenue booms once again (as happened in 1970s) ignite ‘greed and grievance’ and lend to distributive conflicts, corruption at high places and other mis-governance, thereby wasting money and further impoverishing the bottom billion. Also, corrupt politicians and generals in countries where the bottom billion live can easily move large sums of money to OECD banks. Third, aid, trade, security commitments, good governance of resources are all complements in economic development. Therefore, some sort of a Marshall Plan (that helped Europe reconstruct with aid while NATO improved security arrangements) is essential to improve the lives of the bottom billion. Such a plan for bottom billion should include higher aid commitments, more trade, and commitment of troops by developed countries to troubled spots.
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